Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

564
FXUS63 KLBF 090921
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
421 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are again expected for much
  of western Nebraska, largely driven by wind gusts of up to 40
  mph. Red Flag Warnings have been issued as a result.

- Rain showers are possible (~ 20%) for portions of western and central
  Nebraska Tuesday. While little to no rainfall is expected (<
  0.05"), gusty erratic winds will be possible in close vicinity
  to any shower.

- Additional fire weather concerns exist each day Thursday
  through early next week with additional headlines possible in
  subsequent forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Early morning radar returns show high based echoes across north
central Nebraska. Occasional reports of light rain at various
observation sites have indicated little to no measurable
precipitation and I do not expect this to change as activity departs
the area through daybreak. Activity is largely driven by mid-level
fgen associated with a small PV anomaly. This feature will quickly
dive east-southeast allowing PoPs to wane by sunrise. Gusty north
winds behind a progressive cool front will last only an hour or two
for any one location before waning. This will be enough to keep
temperatures mild even within modest CAA.

For Tuesday...steady northwest flow will continue across the area in
the post frontal airmass. Aloft, heights will climb as upstream
ridging amplifies. While temperatures today will be a touch cooler
than those seen Monday, increasingly dry air working in from the
central and northern Rockies will propel afternoon humidity values
down. Afternoon highs will climb into the middle 60s to middle 70s
with the warmer values being along and south of Highway 92. Another
PV anomaly and lee-side convergence from the Black Hills within the
enhanced mid-level flow will provide enough lift to lead to isolated
rain showers this afternoon and early evening. Given steepening mid-
level lapse rates and non-zero SBCAPE, can`t completely rule out a
few rumbles of thunder but more importantly believe gusty erratic
wind gusts in close proximity to any showers with be possible.
Recent HRRR runs show this potential in surface wind gust fields
with forecast soundings from various NWP solutions showing large
inverted-v profiles. Believe a few gusts nearing 45 to 50 mph are
possible but duration for any one location should be brief and on
the order of an hour or less. Winds should quickly subside this
evening into early Thursday but may see another subtle increase as
weak disturbance passes to the northeast. Lows tonight should into
the middle 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Thursday...Temperatures cool slightly again heading into Thursday as
steady northwest flow allows CAA to persist over the next 24 to 36
hours. Ridging west of the Rockies will continue to amplify and
gradually translate east. By late in the day, upper-level ridge axis
will set up just west of the Continental Divide with highly
amplified northwesterly flow setting up. The increasing subsidence
aloft will allow for clearing skies and dry conditions. Even as
geopotential heights aloft near the 99th percentile and NAEFS
climatological max values, temperatures are much less anomalous and
so temperatures should only reach the 60s, or approximately 5F above
normal for mid-April. Winds again will be blustery as the area is
squeezed between developing high pressure to the west and the weak
disturbance to the east. The strongest gusts will favor areas east
of Highway 83 where forecast soundings suggest deep mixing tapping
into the strong h7 flow aloft. This produces gusts in the 30 to 35
mph range for central Nebraska but only in the 20 to 25 mph range
for the west.

Friday into the weekend...ensemble guidance continues to advertise
strongly anomalous heights across the western CONUS. Similarly,
temperatures are likely to quickly increase as the ridge axis
approaches over the weekend. NBM inner-quartile temperatures
steadily cimb through Saturday with deterministic output
undercutting the 25th percentile each day Friday and Saturday. The
ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index shows increasingly positive anomalies
for both MaxT and MinT values by the weekend with non-zero shift of
tails values by Saturday. Similarly, NAEFS guidance shows values
exceeding the 90th percentile for h85 through h5 heights. The going
forecast calls for highs in the 70s Friday, reaching the middle to
upper 80s by Saturday, and falling to the 60s and 70s by Sunday.
Notably the high of 84F for North Platte on Saturday is exceeding
the 90th percentile in North Platte`s recorded history. The record
high for the day is 93F and only the higher outputs from the NBM
forecast envelope suggest this record is in jeopardy. Will keep an
eye on this potential in the coming days. A passing frontal boundary
late Saturday into Sunday explains the drop in temperatures. While
NBM spread expands considerably for Sunday`s afternoon highs, the
main ensemble solutions of the EPS/GEFS both advertise values on the
cooler side of the NBM suite so believe the populated deterministic
values appear reasonable. Will also watch for some low-end
precipitation chances to accompany this front. Probabilities appear
greatest north of the local area and ensemble guidance echoes this
thought.

Next week...a more impressive mid-level disturbance will arrive
early next week out of the northern Rockies. A deepening trough will
set up across the northern Plains around late Sunday into early
Monday. More widespread precipitation chances will arrive into
western Nebraska. Even so, the greatest dynamics will remain north
of Nebraska and it`s there that precipitation potential will be
greatest. Temperatures appear to remain warm enough to limit
precipitation to mostly rain though some overnight wintry weather
cannot be ruled out. Upper-level ridging will again set up across
the western CONUS by late Monday into Tuesday. Northwesterly flow
aloft will again become re-established and should promote moderating
temperatures through the end of the forecast period. Highs will
likely reach the 60s and 70s by the middle of next week along with
dry or mostly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight across
all of western and north central Nebraska. Scattered showers
will persist across northern Nebraska for a few more hours, with
gusty, erratic winds possible in any showers. Winds remain
northwesterly through today, strengthening this afternoon.
Northwest wind gusts of 30 to 35kts are expected through late
this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Wednesday...Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Zones 204, 206,
208, 210, and 219. Though Red Flag Warning conditions may not be
precisely met, the expected magnitude of strong winds along with
humidity falling just short of critical levels raised concerns
enough following collaboration with neighboring offices to issue the
headlines. In the post frontal airmass, strong northwest winds
gusting up to 40 mph will be fairly steady through the day. Strong
kinematics will support deep mixing. Unidirectional flow will tap
into stronger flow above 2km aloft which should allow these stronger
speeds to reach the surface. Humidity minimums are the bigger
uncertainty with the forecast. Dew points behind the frontal
boundary have climbed into the upper 30s to lower 40s but upstream
observations originating from northern Wyoming through southeast
Montana suggest dew points will eventually fall into the lower 20s
and even upper teens for a few locations. Combined with afternoon
highs in the 60s and 70s, or approximately 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, believe humidity minimums should fall into the middle teens
to lower 20s. One thing of interest will be Slight Chance (~ 20%)
PoPs through the middle of the afternoon in a northwest to southeast
orientation across the Sandhills into central Nebraska. While
measureable precipitation appears to be nearly negligible, the
increased clouds and precipitation may be enough to keep humidity
safely above critical levels under this activity. This will have
largest impacts on Zones 208, 206, and 209 from northwest to
southeast. Similarly, enough of a convective element to this
activity may be enough to produce a few rumbles of thunder. Will
stop short of suggesting there is a widespread dry lightning threat
but believe it warrants monitoring through the day. Winds tonight
should subside quickly in the evening but may see a subtle increase
towards daybreak on Thursday. Given these elevated winds and mild
overnight temperatures, humidity recovery overnight will likely be
poor at best and limited to around 70% at best for the south and
closer to 45% in the north.

Thursday and beyond...similarly mild temperatures and dry conditions
will allow fire weather concerns to continue through the bulk of the
extended forecast. Temperatures will quickly climb heading into the
weekend with widespread 80s forecast for Saturday and potential for
a few locations to reach the 90s not out of the question. Later
forecasts may require additional fire weather headlines...as early
as Thursday. Will defer to later forecasts as confidence in the need
for any headlines increases.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Brown
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ