Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

256
FXUS63 KLBF 041939
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
239 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in storms developing late this afternoon into
  the evening. Scattered severe will be possible with storms
  likely ending by late evening.

- Moderate to high confidence in slightly above daily highs in the
  upper 80s to low 90s next week.

- Moderate confidence in near daily thunderstorm chances, mostly
  across our western counties with Tuesday and Wednesday being
  the highest likelihood days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

At outflow boundary from morning convection is evident on
satellite imagery from near O`Neill to Broken Bow. Another
boundary extends northwest ward from near Broken Bow to Thedford
and Mullen. Towering cumulus clouds have occurring near these
boundaries across mainly Custer county so far. Hi-Res models are
persistent in developing scattered convection across central
Nebraska, into the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska mid to late
this afternoon. As low-level flow increases somewhat late this
afternoon, overall shear will increase. A few supercell
structures are likely early on with a cold pool quickly
developing as storms become outflow dominate. This transition
appears to occur fairly quickly with chances for convection
diminishing by late evening. Appears that damaging wind gusts
are the main concern, but hail could also occur, especially
early on in the convective process.

Ridging aloft builds northward from the southern Rockies
into the Plains Sunday into Monday. Overall shear diminishes as
this occurs. A weak disturbance does rotate around the northern
periphery of the ridge later Monday into Monday night. This
could help carry convection eastward off the higher terrain
Monday evening. Overall shear is not strong and will likely
limit the overall severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Upper level ridging over southwest CONUS will continue through much
of the week, with much of the plains on the eastern side of the high
pressure aloft. This will favor warmer temperatures through the
extended forecast along with 850 temps being in the mid to upper 20s
through the week. Overall, daytime highs will be slightly above
normal, in the mid to upper 80s into the low 90s through the week.
Guidance suggests near daily thunderstorm chances through the
week, where our western counties are more favored. Tuesday and
Wednesday look to be at least a little outside the norm and may
warrant a deeper look when CAMs are able to assimilate those
days. Long range guidance currently suggests a more pronounced
shortwave moving through each day as well as a low-level jet in
place that could initiate further convection. This would also
combine with sufficient moisture (60 - 65 degree dewpoints) that
is being advected from the Gulf into Northern Plains to at
least provide some signal for the potential for higher rainfall
amounts. NBM remains bullish with keeping very little to no
wetting rains within our CWA but, both the GFS and ECMWF have at
least upwards of 0.25 inch across our western to north central
counties. Confidence in any potential severe concerns and exact
locations impacted remain low at this time and continual
monitoring will be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue to be the rule across all of
western and north central Nebraska through this afternoon,
tonight and into Sunday morning. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon across the Sandhills into southwest
Nebraska. These could create locally very strong and variable
wind gusts. Storms should end by mid to late evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Taylor