Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

644
FXUS63 KLBF 220424
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1024 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Temperatures will begin an upward climb Saturday, ending up with
   readings 20+F above normal Sunday and Monday.

-  Expect dry conditions through Tuesday, with a slight chance
   (20-30%) of precipitation Tuesday night/Wednesday over the
   northern half of the forecast area.

-  Dry conditions expected beyond Wednesday with above normal highs
   through the end of next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

H5 analysis this morning had a messy pattern across the lower
48. Low pressure was located of the coast of the Canadian
Maritimes with a trough extending to the south-southwest to Cape
Hatteras. Upstream of this trough, shortwaves were noted over
central Manitoba and over the mid Ohio valley. Further upstream,
a decent shortwave was noted over far eastern Colorado. This
feature had spread a thin, but potent band of snow along I-70 in
western Kansas this morning. Clouds in association with this
feature had made it up to the Kansas/Nebraska border, and have
continued to remain south of the forecast area into the
afternoon hours. West of this feature, ridging was present from
northern California into Washington state. Across western and
north central Nebraska this afternoon, skies were clear and
temperatures as of 2 PM CST ranged from 21 degrees at North
Platte to 40 degrees at Gordon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

The current NAM12 soln from this morning has a wedge of colder
H85 air which extended from southwestern into central and
eastern Nebraska this afternoon. No doubt, based on current
temps and with winds of 10 to 15 MPH across the area, the sharp
gradient in H85 temps on the back edge of this cold wedge is
reflected well with this afternoon`s temperatures. This wedge of
cold air will transition east of the forecast area this evening
with light westerly winds expected overnight. Lows tonight will
be coldest in the river valleys of SW and portions of central
Nebraska, thanks to snow cover and a good setup for cold air
drainage. Lows tonight will be in the single digits in the SW
and SE forecast area with teens elsewhere. On Saturday,
additional warm air advection at the H85 level, will push
temperatures to 3 to 5C Saturday afternoon. Normally a good
setup for widespread upper 40s to lower 50s, however, snow cover
and limited mixing will holt temps back to the lower to middle
40s. For North Platte, the forecast high of 43 Saturday was
below the MAV and NBM deterministic guidance of 45 and well
below the MET guidance of 56.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Temperatures will remain problematic into early next week due
to the balancing act of low level mixing potential and the
impact of snow cover on this becoming a reality. Low level warm
advection will increase further on Sunday with H85 temps ranging
from 8-12C Sunday afternoon. Mixing potential seems more
favorable in the west half of the forecast area as H85 winds
become more unidirectional with the SFC Sunday afternoon. This
would normally favor highs in the 60s given forecast H85 temps.
However, persistent snow cover will hold temps down somewhat.
The forecast initialized with the NBM deterministic has a high
of 55 for North Platte. Decided to undercut highs a couple of
degrees, trending more toward the 10th percentile of the NBM
based on expected snow cover. For Monday, decided to trend down
lows slightly from the NBM deterministic forecast, hedging
toward continued snow cover. Will take a hard look at snowcover
Sunday afternoon, as if this can melt off Saturday and Sunday,
highs Monday may need to be modified upward. By Tuesday, with
the approach of a clipper system, feel fairly confident in
breezy conditions across the forecast area. Breezy conditions,
will lead to highs well into the 60s. The before mentioned
clipper, will force a cold front through the forecast area late
Tuesday. For most of the forecast area, this will result in a
wind shift and modest cold air advection. There is some limited
lift and resultant precipitation over northeastern Nebraska.
Based on the probabilistic forecast of measurable precipitation,
couldn`t justify pops over slight chances Tuesday night into
early Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 40s
to lower 50s which is actually slightly above normal for late
February. Mild temperatures will continue into the end of next
week, as arctic air will be locked in over eastern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night
across all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain
light from the west through sunrise, before increasing from the
northwest Saturday afternoon at around 10 to 15kts. High clouds
increase through Saturday afternoon as well, though remain well
into VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Brown