Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

898
FXUS63 KLBF 111855
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
155 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
  late this afternoon and early evening across far western
  Nebraska. A few strong to briefly severe storms are possible,
  especially west of Hwy 83 through mid evening.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Sunday afternoon and evening across
  the eastern panhandle, western Sandhills and much of north
  central Nebraska, where gusty west winds and low humidity
  reside.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday
  afternoon and early evening, mainly across the eastern
  panhandle into the western Sandhills, where gusty west winds
  and low humidity reside.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Surface based CAPEs from 1000-1500 J/kg by late this afternoon will
be in place across the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska.
Deep layer shear is strong, with 0-6 km values of 30-50 kts.
Convergence will increase along a dryline west of highway 61,
where initial convective development is favored. A small threat
for isolated dry lightning is possible west of Highway 61 early
this evening. Coverage of any storms will be isolated in
coverage, but a few storms could become strong to briefly
severe. Mesoscale models show most of this activity will
diminish as they reach Hwy 83 and move east.

Very warm Sunday with highs reaching into the lower 80s with sunny
skies. Afternoon humidity will be very low, below 15 percent most
areas. Westerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph for areas
north of Ogallala through O`Neill. Winds across southwest into
central NE will be lighter at 5 to 15 mph. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued for the western Sandhills and much o north central
Nebraska, where the stronger winds and low humidity overlap.

A slight chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday evening
and overnight. Elevated instability with MUCAPEs from 500-1000 J/kg
will exist along with 30-40kts of deep layer shear. While a focus
may be lacking, areas of weak convergence and a developing low level
jet up to 35kts may support at least isolated elevated development.

A very similar day on Monday as highs reach the upper 70s to lower
80s. Afternoon humidity will again be very low, below 15 percent
most areas. Westerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph for
areas west of Highway 83 and north of I80, where critical fire
weather conditions may be met, and fire weather highlights may be
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

On Monday night, a northern stream shortwave trough will lift across
North Dakota. Some elevated instability exists across the northwest
Sandhills Monday evening. Given the expected dry boundary layer, dry
lightning may become a concern in these areas Monday evening. The
northern stream shortwave, will force a weak cold front through the
area Monday night.

Tuesday, an upper trough will approach the region. This will bring a
chance for showers, mainly to the western Sandhills and north
central NE. Cooler across the northwest in the low to mid 60s, with
low tom mid 70s southwest and east. Gusty north to northwest winds
with afternoon humidity 20 to around 30 percent will bring elevated
fire weather conditions.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, an upper level trough will cross the
region, and bring a continued chance for showers. The NBM ensemble
has a 50 to 60 percent probability of a tenth of an inch or more
across the northwest Sandhills Tuesday night, to only a 20 to 40
percent probability across the southwest into eastern portions of
north central Nebraska. A wetting rain, albeit light, appears
confined to northwestern areas.

Wednesday and Thursday will see a return of warm temperatures in the
mid 70s to low 80s, dry conditions and increased fire danger.

A cold front Thursday night, will bring cooler highs from the low
50s to low 60s for Friday. Precipitation chances behind the front
appear low, as the best forcing is north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

IFR and MVFR ceilings will continue to clear out from west to
east this afternoon, becoming VFR at KLBF at 19Z. There is low
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the western
Sandhills, southwest and central Nebraska. This could affect the
KLBF terminal from 01Z until 04Z, where gusty winds and small
hail are possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Sunday for NEZ204-206-208.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg