Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS63 KLBF 191125
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms is expected for
areas generally east of US-83 this evening.

- A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms is expected across
much of north central Nebraska on Sunday.

- Near daily rain and thunderstorms continue Monday through next
week, but the severe risk is uncertain.

- Very hot temperatures arrive for the beginning of the week with
the potential for heat indices in the low 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Lingering showers and storms continue across northern Nebraska
through this morning with some embedded thunderstorms possible. Not
anticipating any severe storms with these early storms, but
additional storms are expected to develop again by late afternoon
and last through the evening as a trough moves through the region.
An area of higher instability (CAPE values near 2500 J/kg, steep low
level lapse rates, and an area of shear greater than 30 knots) will
be present across much of central and portions of southwest Nebraska
which will provide enough support for widely scattered severe storms
by late afternoon. Convection is anticipated to start between 21Z
and 23Z across the Panhandle and Sandhills before tracking east into
the evening hours. Greatest threats with these storms will be
large hail (2 inch diameter or larger) initially in discrete
supercells before storms become more linear in nature and
damaging winds (75 mph or greater) become the main threat. A
tornado or two also cannot be ruled out with these storms.

An another round of severe storms is possible again on Sunday
evening. Significant instability will remain in place across the
region, however the latest CAMs suggest coverage may be more
isolated than Saturday. Still, any storm that can develop will be
capable of producing some large hail and stronger wind gusts. The
going SPC marginal risk seems reasonable for now as there is still
uncertainty in development, coverage, and strength for the Sunday
evening storms.

For temperatures, clouds and lingering showers today across northern
Nebraska will result in cooler temperatures. Temperatures will
generally range from the low 80s in the north to the low 90s in the
south today. Warmer temperatures begin to creep into the Panhandle
and northwest on Sunday with highs in the 80s east of US-183 and
highs in the low 90s west of US-183.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Near daily isolated rain and thunderstorm chances will continue
Monday through the end of the week as several disturbances move
through the region. At this time, confidence in locations of impact
and timing is low and therefore, the severe potential is low at this
time, but a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out completely
with small hail and strong wind gusts being the main threats. Heavy
rainfall is also a concern, especially on Wednesday night as the
latest models suggest indicate up to 1.0 inch or more is possible
during the Wednesday/Wednesday night timeframe. Will continue to
monitor severe potential over the next few days as models get a
better handle on the environment.

In addition to shower and thunderstorm potential, a much warmer
airmass will bring an increase in temperatures through much of next
week. With 850 mb temperatures in the 26 to 32 C range, widespread
surface highs in the 90s are expected for Monday and Tuesday. These
warm temperatures combined with increased moisture will raise heat
indices into the low 100s across portions of north central and into
central Nebraska. Temperatures will cool slightly on Wednesday
through the remainder of the week which should help eliminate heat
index concerns after Tuesday. At this time, no heat headlines have
been issued, but if the warming trend continues and guidance
increases either temperature or humidity a few degrees, headlines
may be necessary. Stay tuned to later forecasts especially if you
have outdoor plans next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Lowering ceilings are expected across northern Nebraska until after
sunrise. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms return by late
afternoon continuing through the evening potentially impacting both
terminals. Reductions in visibility as well as strong, erratic winds
and hail will be possible. Conditions gradually improve by late
evening before lower clouds and fog develop across portions of
southwest Nebraska by early Sunday morning. Visibility restrictions
down to 3/4 miles is possible at times.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik