Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

949
FXUS63 KLBF 242330
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
630 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A threat for strong to severe storms may develop this
  evening, primarily for areas near and east of Highway 183.
  Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats.

- Strong southerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon, with
  gusts as high as 35 to 45 miles per hour across western
  Nebraska.

- Additional threats for showers and thunderstorms exist nearly
  each day early and middle next week, though confidence in
  locations and precipitation amounts remains low for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Still monitoring a conditional threat for severe weather this
afternoon and evening, ahead of a surface trough pushing east across
the Sandhills. Currently, the aforementioned surface trough is
positioned near the HWY 83 corridor, with a well mixed airmass to
its west (T/Td spreads ~45-55F). Ahead of the boundary, dewpoints
have climbed into the 50s, with middle to upper 50s in place east of
HWY 183. Satellite trends thus far have shown a lack of cumulus
development, though increasing convergence along this boundary
as it encroaches on the better moisture may be just enough to
initiate isolated thunderstorms closer to the HWY 281 corridor
this evening. Should storms develop, long hodographs and nearly
perpendicular oriented deep layer shear vectors suggest a threat
for a supercellular storm mode. Though confidence in storm
formation remains low at this time, any storms that form would
likely become severe and pose a risk of large/very large (>2")
hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is a little less
certain, with LCL heights still rather high (1500-2000m) in the
moist sector. In addition to this, low-level shear is somewhat
marginal as well, though should improve later this evening as a
modest southerly low level jet develops across central and
eastern Nebraska. This is all to say, though the threat for
tornadoes appear low, they cannot be completely ruled out should
a discrete supercell mode be sustained this evening.

Any lingering convection should exit the area and wane after sunset
as inhibition increases. Lows tonight only fall into the 50s, as
weak warm advection persists. The weak surface trough remains in
place across the area through tomorrow afternoon, and looks to
provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Though ample
instability will be in place tomorrow ahead of the boundary, much
weaker flow aloft leads to weaker wind shear versus today. Though a
few stronger storms cannot be ruled out with hail and strong winds,
the severe threat looks somewhat limited. Heavy rain may become a
threat, with slow storm motions expected.

A threat for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns is
expected to develop again west of the surface trough, as warm
temperatures in the 90s combine with very dry air and push humidity
into the middle to upper teens. Winds again look to be the limiting
factor with respect to widespread and sustained Red Flag conditions,
though trends will need to be monitored closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A complex upper pattern awaits us as we head into middle to late
week, as an omega blocking pattern establishes across the CONUS. At
this time, it appears the local area will remain positioned to the
west of the amplifying upper ridge axis, and to the east of deep
upper troughing across the western CONUS. The primary feature of
note locally will be a weak upper wave, that is progged to slowly
migrate northward out of northern Mexico Tuesday, nearing overhead
by Thursday.

Of note, strong surface cyclogenesis across southeastern Wyoming on
Tuesday will lead to strengthening southerly winds Tuesday
afternoon, potentially as high as 35 to 45mph across western
Nebraska. This could again lead to elevated to near critical fire
weather concerns, though humidity will be slightly higher (25-
35%) Tuesday.

The main story middle to late week looks to be the threat for
precipitation, and even locally heavy rainfall. The background
environment looks supportive of this heavy rainfall threat,
with PWAT values climbing above the 90th percentile for the
entire Wednesday through Saturday period. Add in weak winds
aloft, and limited steering flow suggests a threat for slow
moving thunderstorms nearly each afternoon. Mesoscale details
will need to be resolved to gain more clarity with respect to
any amounts and locations, though there is cause for optimism
for much needed precipitation to return middle to late week
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions the next 24 hours across all of western and north
central Nebraska. Broken high cloudiness overnight until mid
morning across north central NE until mid morning, otherwise
scattered high cloudiness across southwest and central NE. winds
will become light and variable tonight, then southerly up to
12KT Monday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Will not include in the KLBF and
KVTN terminals, with coverage and location uncertain.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Roberg